December 27, 2020
Just like prior quarter, we are bringing many fresh ideas this time. High growth under the radar small and mid cap stocks that I believe many Jag clients have never heard of. The goal with every pick remains the same: find opportunities where street estimates haven’t caught up to underlying growth story yet, resulting in potential for significant re-rating. Some of them have hard catalysts in play. Some are best of breed stocks to play secular strong trends accelerated by covid-led disruptions. Some are betting on cyclical recovery. There is an entertainment stock, which we believe is a come-back story in 2021 with major long term catalysts. There is a bank that benefits from improving net interest margin. There is very exciting emerging medtech. There are two software companies, one that is growing top line revenues by +60% YoY with near zero street coverage, while the other software is a turnaround story. There is a pure play in tackling cybercrime (not to confuse with cybersecurity). There is a high growth stock in genomics and single cell biological research, a stock in housing industry, a stock in oil sector, two stocks in travel sector, a high growth fintech, and lastly a company uniquely positioned to benefit from large orders from Amazon. As you can tell, there is pretty good mix here from several industries, but if you are looking for a common denominator, you will find many of them are small cap stocks, which certainly can be volatile but also highly rewarding. Separately, once you have the outlook, please do not skip over macro section where I discussed in detail the current market sentiment along with 5 key themes to emerge in 2021 and our favorite picks in each of those themes.
To download Jaguar 1Q21 Outlook: https://bit.ly/3aL62Ax
Sell full history and performance of prior outlooks since inception in 2017: https://bit.ly/37Q7f7Y
October 16, 2020
The incumbent Perspecta (PRSP) that has handled US Navy IT infrastructure for the last 20 years lost $7 billion contract to untested competitor Leidos (LDOS) in Feb 2020. But this chapter is not closed yet and the company has been protesting for several months while it has already cut revenue guidance to adjust for this loss. Meanwhile, activist Jana Partners has been building a position since June and now owns 7.4% stake. Separately, since Sep 18th traders have been gradually accumulating December 22.5 calls in anticipation of some good news. Lastly, even without this Navy contract, management in last earnings call talked about book to bill ratio of 1.5x and growth returning to double digits percentage in 2H20. All this explained in the podcast.
September 23, 2020
Given unmet medical need, differentiated product profile, and competitor having large recall last year, I believe the commercial opportunity for Ascendis Pharma's TransCon treatment for PTH patients is not fully priced into the stock. I believe there is significant re-rating potential for Ascendis as well as M&A optionality.
September 2, 2020
Chart is breaking out through key $75 resistance and we believe it gradually grinds higher towards $80+ over next 3 to 6 months. Three part bull case presented: 1) The technical view, 2) Bookings in excess of billings, and 3) Large $10 billion VA contract that was delayed but is now going into effect in 2H20.
August 24, 2020
We are seeing strong green shoots in travel / leisure stocks as covid-19 cases come down, US hospitalization rate improves, progress for vaccine improves, and most importantly people finally become accustomed to wearing a mask and going about their normal life. Several travel data points discussed, all showing sequential improvement and large call buyers are starting to step into the group.
Stocks discussed: $MAR $HLT $BKNG $EXPE $TRIP
August 19, 2020
$DAO is a high growth distance learning online platform in China that is making significant progress in under penetrated markets of rural areas and going after big competitive threats from $TAL and $EDU. End markets are big and there is room for multiple players. The company is differentiating itself by extensive use of digital pens, apps and cloud integration that supports sticky consumer base and creates a moat around business. This, plus many other things discussed. Full write up and slides are attached below.
For video presentation, slide deck and research note, please go HERE
August 8, 2020
Second episode of Chinese Tech Demystified with discussion on Huya. What does the company do, how it carries the commanding market share of digital video game streaming, what do financials look like, and lastly future growth prospects with rising user base. For full video, research note and presentation slides, please go HERE.